"It pays for itself" is the most overused sentence in solar sales, so let us replace it with arithmetic. Below are the actual PLN tariffs, actual installed prices and a worked villa example — the same model we build for clients, with the assumptions visible so you can argue with them.
Step 1: What You Pay PLN per kWh
Most private properties in south Bali sit on one of these residential tariff bands in 2026:
| Tariff Group | Typical Property | Rate per kWh |
|---|---|---|
| R-1/TR 1,300–2,200 VA | Family homes | IDR 1,444.70 |
| R-2/TR 3,500–5,500 VA | Most villas | IDR 1,699.53 |
| R-3/TR 6,600 VA and up | Large villas, small guesthouses | IDR 1,699.53 |
Check your own bill — the tariff group is printed on it. Businesses on B-2/B-3 tariffs pay in the same region, which is why the guesthouse and hotel maths in our commercial solar work looks so similar.
Step 2: What a System Produces in Bali
Bali averages 4.0–4.3 peak sun hours daily across the year — wet season included. After inverter and temperature losses, a well-installed, unshaded 1 kWp of panels yields roughly 120–130 kWh per month. So a 5 kWp system produces about 640 kWh monthly; a 10 kWp system about 1,280 kWh. These are conservative planning numbers, not brochure numbers — clean panels in the dry season will beat them.
Step 3: The Catch — Self-Consumption
Here is the part many quotes skip. Since PLN revised its rooftop solar rules, exported energy is no longer credited one-to-one against your consumption. Energy you push to the grid at noon is worth far less than energy you avoid buying. The financial value of your system therefore depends on how much of its production you consume as it happens.
Villas are lucky: pool pumps, daytime AC, laundry and staff activity mean a typical villa self-consumes 70–90% of a correctly sized array's output. This is also the strongest argument against oversizing — the eleventh panel earns less than the first ten — and the reason we size from your measured load, not your roof area.
Step 4: A Worked Villa Example
Take a real, typical case: a 3-bedroom Canggu-area villa on the R-2 tariff using 1,400 kWh a month — a PLN bill of about IDR 2,380,000.
- System: 5 kWp grid-tied, installed at IDR 65,000,000 (see pricing)
- Production: ~640 kWh/month; assume 80% self-consumed = 512 kWh of avoided purchase
- Avoided cost: 512 kWh × IDR 1,699.53 ≈ IDR 870,000/month, plus a small credit for the exported remainder — call it IDR 950,000/month total
- Annual saving: ≈ IDR 11,400,000
- Simple payback: 65,000,000 ÷ 11,400,000 ≈ 5.7 years
Push self-consumption higher — run the pool pump at noon, pre-cool bedrooms in the afternoon, add a timer to the water heater — and the same hardware lands closer to 4.5–5 years. That is the honest range we quote: 4–6 years, depending mostly on your own usage pattern. After payback, the panels keep producing for 20+ more warranted years at a maintenance cost of a couple of cleanings per year.
What Changes the Number
Things that shorten payback
High daytime consumption (offices, rental villas with daily housekeeping, pools), the R-2/R-3 tariff rather than subsidised bands, unshaded north-or-west roofs, and PLN's history of tariff adjustments — every future increase makes your already-paid-for kilowatt-hours more valuable.
Things that stretch it
Heavy shading (see what we tell Ubud clients), low daytime occupancy, oversized systems exporting at poor rates, and dirty panels — a neglected array quietly loses 10–25% of output, which is why cleaning is part of the maths, not an extra.
What about batteries?
A battery stores midday surplus for the evening, raising effective self-consumption towards 100% — but it adds IDR 25–48 million of capital. On pure bill economics, batteries extend simple payback by a year or two; what they actually buy is blackout immunity, which in Canggu or Uluwatu is the real product. We model it both ways so you choose with open eyes.
The Bottom Line
At 2026 tariffs and prices, a correctly sized villa system in Bali returns its cost in 4–6 years and then prints savings for two decades. The two levers that matter most are sizing discipline and self-consumption — both design questions, both solved before a single panel is bought. Want your own version of the table above? Send a PLN bill; the model takes us a day.